2024 Predictions: Health As Capital

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5 min

2024 Predictions: Health As Capital

As I start each yearโ€™s predictions, I like to look back at the year prior to analyze what came to fruition and what didnโ€™t.

Firstly, I incorrectly guessed that grocery spend would outpace that of restaurants. When comparing US Census MARTS data of bars and restaurants (food-away-from-home) against grocery and liquor stores (food-at-home), consumers spent ~11% more on the former. Of course, this data doesnโ€™t examine the role of inflation, which was much higher in foodservice. Another miss was my prediction around the growth of frozen food. While the categoryโ€™s sales did grow thanks to inflation, unit sales declined.

Source: Census MARTS data

But a number of predictions I made at the start of 2023 seemed to pan out:

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